Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure - A Review

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

Methods and Tools for the Microsimulation and Forecasting of Household Expenditure

This paper reviews potential methods and tools for the microsimulation and forecasting of household expenditure. It begins with a discussion of a range of approaches to the forecasting of household populations via agent-based modelling tools. Then it evaluates approaches to the modelling of household expenditure. A prototype implementation is described and the paper concludes with an outline of an approach to be pursued in future work

An Agent-based Model of Household Spending Using a Random Assignment Scheme

This paper describes a way to model household expenditure using an agent-based microsimulation approach. Work in this area is dominated by econometric models, which attempt to estimate the parameters of an equation linking household characteristics with expenditure patterns. However, as Klevmarken (1997) notes, the representation of behaviour in these models is limited by the current state of the art in economics. A way to overcome these limitations is proposed based on a random assignment scheme where data is obtained from a donor case that is in some way similar to the receiving unit. The paper begins with a brief account of methods for modelling behaviour currently used in microsimulation. It then introduces the random assignment scheme in an example describing how household incomes can be projected over time. This is illustrated by describing two models that have been implemented using the approach. One of them is to forecast changes in household expenditure in response to variations in income. The other models the effect of the level of unemployment on household spending patterns. These examples provide the basis for a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the random assignment met

Process, order and stability in Veblen

In this essay I tease out the notion of social order that underpins Veblen’s numerous contributions, and examine its development over time. In piecing together various components of Veblen’s conception, in particular his notions of habit, institution and habituation, I challenge various existing interpretations of Veblen’s thinking on these and related matters.This is the accepted manuscript version.The final version is available from OUP at http://cje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/09/30/cje.beu045.abstract

The nature of the firm and peculiarities of the corporation

Insights from social ontology are utilised to provide a novel, or at least clarified, conception of the firm. The latter is shown to be a particular form of social entity that is both of an economic and legal nature. The limited company or ‘corporation’ is shown to be a specific form of firm. A central distinguishing feature of the argument is that positioning matters in social identity constitution and different sorts of phenomena are positioned in different ways. The company/corporation is constituted in a manner that is a hybrid of other forms of positioning. Notions like legal fiction and legal personality that abound in the related literature, often in confused ways, are also clarified. Various consequences are drawn for further analyses at the levels of method, theory and policy.I must thank the Independent Social Research Foundation for generous funding of the research on which this paper draws.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Oxford University Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu04

Estimating the small area effects of austerity measures in the UK

Governments across Europe are starting to implement a range of cost-cutting and income generating programmes in order to re-balance their fiscal budgets following substantial investments in stabilising domestic financial institutions in 2008 and 2009. One method of doing this has been to increase tax rates such as the increase in VAT in the UK from 17.5% to 20% from January 1st 2011. In this paper we explore the different spatial impact of this VAT rise on household expenditure on public and private transport and communication technology from 2006 to 2016. We do this by combining three elements: an agent-based dynamic population microsimulation model that produces projected snapshots of the UK population in 2006, 2011 and 2016; an expenditure system model based on the familiar Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System approach; and synthetic small area census tables produced by projecting historical UK census data. Taken together these elements provide a toolkit for assessing the potential spatial impact of rising taxes or prices (or both) and we use them to compare small area projections of household expenditure under two scenarios. The first is a 'no intervention' scenario where prices and income align to UK government inflation forecasts and the second is a one-off non-reversed 2.5% increase in VAT on goods and services rated at 17.5% on 1st January 2011. We present results for different areas (rural vs urban/deprived vs affluent) and for different income groups within them and discuss the potential implications for the telecommunications industry and for the usage of public and private transport